No, the show didn't invalidate Houses foresight.

As I am continuing to see people make this argument to this day I want to put a nail in it as quickly and as simply as I can.

In NV, House claims to have calculated the inevitability of nuclear war in the 2060s. The show flashbacks take place in the 2070s.

Yes, vault tec told him their plan. A DECADE AFTER HE FIGURED IT OUT HIMSELF. His characterisation in that scene is actually perfect, he's like a poker player holding cards close to his chest, both in terms of his motivation and body language/facial impressions.

Can we give these writers like, a mg more credit?