Tracking polls capturing significant turn back to Labor
This is obviously not a surprise to those monitoring the polls coming in, but it is notable that each of these have the 2PP at between 50.2 to 50.3 to the liberals..
..my understanding (not positive on pollbludger) is they all assume last election preference flows with the exception of one nation based on significantly higher flows in the qld election and Fadden byelections. According to Kevin Bonham, this results in a 5% shift to the coalition (i.e. he has Labor leading 50.3 to 49.7 on preferences)
Australian Election Forecasts, the only one that does so, provides a median outcome of Labor with 69 seats to the coalition 63 which would mean certain Labor Government....
A uniform swing in line with these trackers would leave Labor with 72 seats...again, comfortable minority government assuming similar crossbench
https://www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2025fed/regular/